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Air cargo demand declined by -8% in June 2022 compared with a year ago, according to the latest statistics from CLIVE Data Services. The dynamic cargo load factor in June was at 59%, having fallen by nine percentage points compared to 2021. Carriers have increased capacity by 6% over 2021 to meet returning passenger demand but capacity is still -11% below 2019 levels. Despite the weakening demand, rates in June 2022 are 13% higher than last year’s levels and 129% higher when compared to 2019.
Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, Niall van de Wouw, said the North Atlantic market had seen the steepest decline in conditions, falling by -30% over the last three months. The rates are now close to 2020 levels . He warned of knock-on effects on other trade lanes, while inflation could also impact market demand. “While flights ex Asia to the U.S. and Europe remain relatively full, we are seeing a subdued North Atlantic market, largely due to more capacity.
“We are already seeing some freighter redeployment in the market. It will also be interesting to see the reaction of forwarders that have secured air cargo capacity directly with airlines or through charter brokers or ACMI providers because, in a softening market, more options are available. They were willing to pay a price for reliability and their own control, but they may now be considering how much cheaper it could now be to use commercial airline capacity. And, has the ‘cost of living’ crisis even started to kick in yet?” van de Wouw said.
Rising cases of COVID will be another market concern, along with a staffing shortage in the aviation and logistics industries. Van de Wouw pointed to reports of restrictions on freighter operations at Frankfurt Airport due to labor shortages as well as the recent study by the International Road Transport Union, which shows 2.6m truck driver vacancies went unfilled in 2021 and forecasts a worsening situation in 2022.
Source: Air Cargo News